On serre les fesses et on reste confian

Par Phev , le 21 juin 2008

Edward Altman, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business who has tracked defaulted debt for nearly 40 years, said an impending wave of defaults could be the worst on record in the U.S., at 16 percent of corporate debt.

``It may be the worst recession since the Great Depression, that's not impossible,'' said Altman, who estimates default rates on U.S. corporate debt have tripled so far this year from record lows last year. ``There's a lot of negatives out there.''

The U.S. recession will be deeper and longer than the previous one because of the drop in home values, said Max Holmes, founder of Plainfield Asset Management, a $4.8 billion hedge fund in Greenwich, Connecticut. He bought distressed assets in the previous three U.S. recessions and lived in Houston during the region's real-estate bust in the 1980s.

``This is a major, major event, it's going to take a while to resolve itself,'' said Holmes, who reckons the U.S. slipped into recession in December. ``In the last recession the banking industry was healthy, this time it's very, very sick.''

$600 Billion

Even after banks have written off almost $400 billion in debt from the collapse of the U.S. subprime market, more markdowns probably are in store, the fund managers said.

``We have a lot more wood to chop,'' said Alberto Musalem Borrero, head of research for Tudor Investment Corp., the $18 billion hedge fund manager founded by Paul Tudor Jones. ``I wouldn't be surprised to see another $600 billion in losses.''

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